Smithy's Calculus 2.0: Picking an Opening for Black (revised!)

Back in 2019, I wrote my most popular blog post, where I suggested a unique way of deciding on an opening.  Whereas most people ask, "What opening fits my playing style?", which doesn't seem to help, I asked, "What do I prioritize when playing chess?"  I listed several factors and then ranked each opening on them.  This was fun to write and produced some thought-provoking results.

But, and there is always a but...

Re-reading it four years later, I basically disagree with the entire premise!  At the very least, I have not followed my own advice: I currently play very different openings and I fell into those openings for a very different reason.  My old idea is not discredited, but it definitely needs an update.  Here it is.

(2019) Smithy's Calculus: Picking an Opening for Black

(Note: This was originally written in 2019, and my thinking has changed quite a bit on this topic.  Nevertheless, it was the most popular blog post in terms of views, so I am reproducing it in full and will write an update in the future!

Unfortunately, the original post had all the data in tables, which formatted very poorly when I copy-pasted it to blogger.  I've used screenshots instead, which isn't ideal but better than nothing.  Let me know if it is readable, and if not, I'll try to find a better way.)

Picking an Opening as Black: Smithy’s Calculus

At a certain point, almost every player has asked, “Which opening should I play?” Now, I’m on record stating that too many players spend far too much time on the opening, but you have to put SOME work here. Getting an opening repertoire isn’t a bad thing, as long as you don’t make it your only thing.

So, how do we chose? What should we look for?

I fell into my first openings by default; they were what everyone else I knew played. I then tried different openings at random, with some successes here and there but mostly poor results. ‘Random’ isn’t the best approach, but what is?

Well, I think I’ve found, if not the answer, then at least the right way to attempt to answer this question. The following is kind of like online dating, but with openings. You figure out what your priorities are, and then you find which one is your best match.

I’ve settled on a number of factors that can influence openings, which are explained below, and then ranked every major opening. The end result is a fairly reasonable guide to choosing openings, I think, and I found it eye-opening.